[Update] – A day later insanity strikes. An attempted coup in the USA, at least one shot and dead, insane.

The GOP is full of absolute traitors to this country.

The Republican party is actively trying to destroy democracy.

This is just the most apparent and blatant in a long line of anti-democratic activities. Be afraid when the next candidate arrives who is not as stupid and ineffective as Trump and starts leading this country into a dictatorship and fascism.

Try them for sedition.

Once again, there is not a SHRED of proof of voter fraud. American democracy is not going to survive if this keeps ups. The Republican party stands for nothing, has zero ideas on how to help Americans, and merely exists to oppose. Even when they proclaim to believe something they fail to do anything about it, look at health care and their inability to provide any working platform, look at the growth of military spending and their inability to do anything about it, look at the deficit and their ability to do anything about it, look at the license economy and their inability to do anything about it, look at Russian interference into our economy and politics and their inability to do anything about it.

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I’ve written before about the fun of driving in Italy… and how insanely aggressive Italian drivers are. I thought for sure I had found the worst drivers in the world yet I was stunned when I started driving in Portugal. Portuguese drivers are the most unpredictable and crazy drivers in the world. Somehow they even beat the Egyptians.

I’ve seen Portuguese drivers stopped in the middle of the highway.

I’ve seen them park on roundabouts.

They use their turn signal to signal when you should move over.

I’ve seen them stop in the middle of the road to let someone out to mail a letter, turn on their blinkers, and wait…

I’ve seen them drive in the middle of two lanes for miles.

That said, they are more random than aggressive. You just don’t know what they are going to do. I do like that I can count on Italians to both be uber aggressive, but are generally good at staying in the lines. Just this week I had two drivers try to side swipe my bike with a random lane change into me.

I was showing Lindsey a movie trailer for Yesterday (good movie), and she asked when I had seen it. I told her oh maybe 5 or 6 years ago on a plane… so it turns out it came out in 2019 and I must have watched it on the plane to Europe in November 2019…

But ya, it certainly feels like 5 or 6 years :).

Well, this is fun :)

About what I expected… this is going to take weeks to finish counting as it has come down to a few key states.

Biden will most likely still squeak out a win (Trumps odds are up though). The chance of a Democratic Senate is probably finished, meaning nothing is going to change. The Republicans will be Republicans and oppose everything. Meanwhile, on TV tonight an attempted coup by President Drumpf who doesn’t want to count all the votes. We shall see how that goes and if we still have a Democracy by Thanksgiving.

I was really hoping there would be a mandate/repudiation of Trump. I am not seeing that currently. We shall see how counts come in if anything changes. But in completed districts, you can see that he actually gained votes in a lot of key areas.

Just look at the above so far… those people looked at the last 4 years and said I want more of that and I support what is going on. Just think about that. We shall see how the final numbers land.

3 Conclusions (in my mind)…

1. The same conclusion as 2016. The America I thought I knew is over and dead.

2. Propaganda and your ability to spread that virally is what wins elections. Both for blue/red… but especially red. This should not be surprising given the history, but I like to believe people try to educate themselves on key issues. But from conversations with friends on both sides, it is clear ~90% is just the messaging and antidotes. Nobody wants complexity, they just want stories that back up their way of thinking. And, fear/hate work really well.

This seems especially evident when you look at how many “liberal” ballot measures pass and responses from the exit polls. Just look at how Florida passes a minimum wage increase, legalized weed, stricter gun laws, spending on green energy, immigration, etc…

3. As a species I am wary of our ability to overcome climate change. Some good trends showing up, but we are cutting this dangerously close to limits that would protect our future economy and modern survival. I still have a lot of hope, but it is fading fast. I figure in 10 years or so we will know if my son needs to learn to grow gills.

Oh, and some fun posts so far :)

So here we are… weeeeeeeeee!!!!!!

It is like a roller coaster you are not allowed to get off :)

What do I expect for election day? Nothing… most likely nothing will be decided on election day. It will probably take a few weeks, if not Thanksgiving, for all the counting, recounts, legal challenges, and so on.

What do I not want to see? Violence. I am particularly worried about violence by the right to scare off voters. And, I am very concerned about what Trump supporters will do when he loses (especially with his false claims of voter fraud). I also don’t want to see the Courts pick the win for Trump and further subvert the election process. I would also like the USA to remain a democracy.

If I get a magical unicorn wish what do I want to see? An overwhelming win by Biden by 20+ points nationally. That would partially restore my faith in America as a country and ethos. Is that going to happen? No. And, even if it did I think America has broken me. These last 4 years have been long, but I think they are just a more blunt version of the last 20 years. America is just a country, like any other. There is nothing special about it anymore. It is good at a few things, it is really bad at a lot of other things. When you are raised to think a place is special you feel very betrayed when it fails to live up to 90% of those values. And, I am disgusted by the selfish and materialistic culture it has created. Even if Biden wins that is nothing, I don’t expect much out of the Democrats even if they control all 3 houses (including white house). They fail to see how the game has changed and fail to adjust how they play the game.

Some gifs for election day.

There is a good chance Trump will be reelected. A small part of me wants to see that world. I do not think people change without real and persistent pain, and there are a lot of Americans who need 4 more years of Republican pain in order to change their beliefs. Part of me wants them to get their wish.

My vote is in for 2020! Lindsey and I are doing a news fast until November 1st. I do not expect us to know who the next President is until Thanksgiving due to the time it takes to count mail-in votes… although I am hoping for a blow out so Trump can’t launch a coup. I am worried about the violence we are going to see over the next 10 years from the Trump cult. Interesting time to be alive.

I am very glad to not be in the USA during this period.

Wow, the world is getting a bit crazy here :)

I thought China would moderate after this mess but they continue to drive the bus off the cliff. They move forward with the HK security law and now the news is breaking about forced population control of the Uyghurs. That does not play well in the rest of the world.

Does China think the rest of the world is unable to make stuff somewhere? They might be right, but that seems like a pretty big gamble.

I would imagine a lot of countries are saying how can we back out of this deal over the next 10 years? How can we saddle China with persistent 30% to 40% unemployment and keep them busy domestically?

It is hard for me to think Huawei is going to get bids now. It seems possible the 2022 Beijing Olympics will be a boycott fest. It is hard for me not to think the new American administration will go pretty hard line against them… we shall see, but it seems like the rest of the world is lining up against them. Not to say the rest of the world is united in any way, but China is doing a good job of trying to help them.

With how 2020 has gone so far, it makes me think Tawain is about to get invaded and WW3.

We are still in the first quarter of a game that we do not know how to end.

The reaction of the stock market has been fascinating. I’ve seen good arguments on either side. The sectors hit hardest are not zooming back, and those that should be the strongest are doing the best. But, they are still making some pretty big assumptions about the impact this is going to have on the economic system as a whole. Blaming retail traders for this bounce seems insane. The FED has signaled what they plan to do to backstop the economy and now the question seems to be will it work and will poor leadership prevent the action we need to safeguard things.

If the Republicans keep the Senate I could easily see them destroying the economy and sending us into another great depression. Moscow Mitch has already signaled he is willing to drive the economy off a cliff between now and January. Maybe the pressure will get to him, but maybe he doesn’t care.

When I look at the big picture it seems like it could easily take 5 to 10 years to retool the economy. I am hoping for a magical vaccine but that isn’t guaranteed in so many ways. If we lose 50% of restaurants and the food landscape changes how do you move all those jobs to new areas quickly. The USA might be in a terrible position now, but the fastest to rebound given how brutal and inhumane our society is.

I am excited about the political possibilities for 2020 and onward. I am hopeful that we get a new social contract if the Democrats can take the Senate and now be the idiots they usually are. I think the pain our country and the world is about to enter is going to be on such a massive scale that change will finally be possible. The scary thing is that change could as easily be backward toward fascism and fear as it could toward social progress.

What would I love to see?

• Health care. The government needs to chop costs down severely and I don’t care how they do it. Our drugs should be the same cost as the EU, hospitals need standard costs for procedures, and we need to make health insurance both affordable but also COVER HEALTH EMERGENCIES. What is the point of insurance if you have a $10,000 deductible. So frustrating and backward.
• Reimagine the police, split up their current duties to people trained to do them and every officer has to be re-evaluated in order to be hired. Traffic is now traffic safety (no fucking guns and give them hot pink cars), crime is handled by community safety, etc. Send people to help mentally ill people who know how to do that, and give them money to help those people (Reagen shut that all down). Help homeless people get back on their feet like Utah is doing.
• College – Free or a very small cost for everyone. It would be great to look at technical schools and doing the same. If we want to make a play at high-end manufacturing we need that too.
• Expand kindergartens to age 3 months. Colorado starting this push, just keep pushing the age down and hiring. Pay teachers more.
• Maternity/Paternity – Paid 3 months by the gov, increase payroll taxes.
• Paid Vacation- 3 to 4 weeks even with hourly jobs.
• Unemployment System – We need to take a hard look at that system and how to help people get back on their feet with better skills. We don’t want people in despair and we want them adding to our tax base, can we do better? And, can we stop stupid states from punishing people for losing a job like Florida.
• Retirement – Increase social security payouts by a good 25% and fix your stupid COL adjustments, increase payroll taxes, and close the silly loopholes for high earners.
• Legalize weed everywhere.
• If you are not going to increase the minimum wage you need to view the cost of food and housing as national security issues. Food is decent in the USA as you can get it cheap if you know what you are doing and learn to love hormones and antibiotics and animal and environment abuse. Housing is much harder. I’d love to see federal and state legislation to end the hold NIMBA and property taxes hold over housing cost.
• Climate change needs a massive push on infrastructure and a revamp so much of how we operate our electricity and industry.
• Reduce spending on the military by 30%.
• Increase taxes on the upper class, and progressively tax dividends and interest payments. Start revamping taxes so that Americans make less but get 5x more from their gov.
• Revamp capital gains to start at a 35% tax if it is held for under 2 years, then slowly reduce it down to 10% to 15% if held for over 10 years.
• Stop allowing the police or whatever replaces them to run the city on fines. There are a lot of problems with city/state funding and where that money is coming from and incentivizing. I’d rather cities/states be run on weed/liquor/tobacco/lottery taxes than the cost to put a roof over someone’s head.
• IRS – Increase funding to do audits.
• EPA – Actually protect the environment and give them teeth to go after companies and seize stock ownership the more they violate.
• SEC – More funding, and give them a share of the winnings in cases.
• I’d love to see us pay government officials like the private sector. Our president should be making a few million a year minimum. Congress should be making 500k or more a year with a housing allowance. We make them whores for the private sector instead of efficient gov servants. Go look at Singapore and how they pay their people.
• Get rid of the electoral college.
• Let PR vote on if they want to become a state, same for DC.
• Reparations – We need to talk about them. How can we equalize the economic damage done against the black community over the last 250 years? Not an easy answer.

A random list of ideas from over the years. We shall see what happens.

It is *hard* to look at this photo.

Is this America or some tin hat dictatorship?

Police playing soldier, actual soldiers, and private mercenaries in American streets.

I have so much grief and anger for what America could be versus the monster it has become. It hurts to watch a country with such promise and high ideals fail to live up to either. It has failed its citizens.

On Monday Valencia will move to Phase 2. The big change for me is the ability to do sport multiple times a day and without distance/time restrictions. And, kids will be allowed out anytime they want. The only remaining restriction is to not be outside for sport from 10 am to 12 pm and 7 pm to 8 pm so the 70+ demographic can have some exclusive time outside.

What else is new? Restaurants can open and be at 30% capacity indoors. They were allowed to open if they had a terrace a few weeks ago, but only at 50% capacity with space between tables. Most have stayed closed. The beach is going to open too. And, come July 1st Spain will open up foreign inbound/outbound travel.

What’s next for us?

We are thinking about doing a road trip to Southern France (once the borders reopen in July). We don’t plan to eat indoors, just outside. And, we plan to rent AirBNBs and cook most of our meals inside. We want to do a lot of hikes, eat some delicious things, see some history, and explore (I plan to do some bike rides!). We are still waiting to see if this makes sense, but it looks good so far.

Thoughts right now…

• I look at what I see coming down the economic pipeline and I am dumbfounded with the stock market and some individual’s reactions. I do not think people see the absolute economic tsunami that is building and about to break over our heads. There is nothing to compare it with. With the data on Covid so far I do not see how you can keep operating any business that has people talking indoors and not expect this thing to spread like wildfire (schools, restaurants, airplanes, etc).  I am hopeful that contract tracing and massive testing could keep this from spreading… but so far I don’t see much promise there (esp with the Federal response in the USA).

• I think the decision to shut down the economy to stop this from spreading was the right decision given the information we had at the time. That said, I am beginning to think that a response that pushes the young in front of this thing might make sense. It hurts me to say that… and I am still debating it in my head. Maybe by reopening schools, you infect the young and their parents who are the least likely to die from this. I don’t like it but I am having a hard time seeing other options right now in the USA… and possibly in Europe. The economy isn’t everything, but it annoys me when people think it is just about money.
• I’ve been thinking about how restaurants could survive, can they partition off tables with massive individual filtration and airflow going up? Can governments push a bit of a Marshal plan to re-invent how we do public spaces?
• I’ve been trying to look for a really good mask with a fan to provide better airflow. So far there are a few emerging but all sold out.
• The 2020 USA election terrifies me. American society in its current state terrifies me. It is like spending 20 years watching a Volcano build and build… what is going to happen?
• Watching a lot of people think we are going to go back to normal and that we beat this thing, and wondering what is going to happen politically and economically when they realize Covid isn’t going anywhere…

What I find interesting about the current situation is that all the tools and knowledge we gained from past economic crises are not *super* helpful in our current situation. The modern globalized world has not really faced a global pandemic like this one. And, the way forward for the economy and society is a new path that is going to require experimentation.

It is easy to look at sectors like retail and restaurants that are getting destroyed at a speed we have never seen, but there are a lot of sectors that are slowly bleeding out. Taken as a whole this is as bad a situation as I could possibly imagine. Especially with a total lack of federal leadership in the USA. The EU has handled it better due to the design of their institutions but the division between the north and south is impacting a real response.

It is hard for me not to look at this situation and see parallels to the Great Depression and FDR revamping American society and government. Or, on a darker note the rise of Hitler and other dictators.

What worries me right now?

• In March in the USA, 40% of households making less than $40k had lost a job. 33% of households in the USA make less than $40k.
• Real unemployment right now is probably ~25%.

That is a crazy amount of pain inflicted on a lot of people and communities. And, if we undo the lockdown too soon we make it worse because Covid comes back and we have to start over… causing even more economic damage. And, if we don’t convince people it is safe they won’t go out.

Next, you have all the chain reactions that are slowly going to make things worse and take a long time to shake out the economic impacts. Especially when these are all happening at once instead of one sector is really hurt and the rest kinda ok.

• Restaurants – A lot of restaurants are not going to open, and those that do have to figure out how to survive on xx% less revenue (even if states/cities open up the lack of trust in the gov and fear of covid is going to hurt). A lot will declare bankruptcy, thus making it near impossible for those owners to start a new business. All the industries that supply those restaurants suddenly might have 25% less business, food suppliers, wine/liquor suppliers, linin services, etc. They layoff people, people have less money, repeat, repeat.
• Retail – The same problem.
• Tourism and Travel Related – Just decimated. Airlines will be back but at what % compared to last year? 25%? 50%? And, for how long. Once again, more layoffs. Hotels too. Think of all the ripple effects downstream from those… This is a huge part of each State’s income too.
• Hospitals – They are all going to lose massive amounts of money. All their elective surgeries have disappeared, at what pace they come back is going to be interesting. And, with the USA’s poor response it is likely they will have 20% of their hospital for Covid and as things spike watch everything happen again. Stories of nurses and doctors being laid off or having pay reduced during this crisis are emerging. Covid doesn’t pay the bills.
• Doctors – Small practices don’t have many patients right now. They are going to start going out of business or having significant revenue declines.
• Health Care Premiums – I am curious about what premiums will cost for 2021. The fun thing is we should find out a few weeks before the election I believe :). A ton of elective surgeries are being put off, but what is Covid care costing and will see the normal 3% to 5% increase. Or a 20% increase?
• States – Income is down and they have balanced budget amendments and obligations. Goodbye teachers, cops, and firemen. More layoffs.
• Universities – Loosing foreign and domestic students because they can’t reopen classes. Some could need States to step in to fill the holes.
• Daycare – Absolutely vital for working parents, and already insanely unaffordable. How many are not going to be able to stay in business and reopen? How many are losing kids now both from fear and to cut down on costs? 40% of households making less than $50k a year use a daycare, a big chunk of them just lost jobs, can they still pay that bill or are we about to lose a ton of people from the labor market.
• Oil – Ditto.
• Trucking / Shipping – Duh.
• Landlords – A lot of missed rent payments, a lot of missed mortgages. A huge swath of landlords are just normal people not big businesses and that is going to impact their spending and ripple out.

Things I am thinking about what comes next…

• Are we going to nationalize the health care system in the USA? Or will they just keep giving it money they create and ignoring the nightmare that is our medical system?
• The 2020 election…
• Can the EU pull their shit together and build an actual union, or just kinda limp along until someone else tries to leave.

My hope is that Covid just kinda mutates and goes away like the magical ending of a Michael Crichton novel. Or, maybe we will get a true scientific breakthrough and get a vaccine to market that breaks all previous speed records. Or, maybe we can’t make a vaccine and we are living with this thing for a long time.

Maybe you live in interesting times and all of that.

Spain reopened on Saturday to allow solo sport and some walks for adults. I got a nice 2-hour ride in and it was glorious :). Lindsey took a long walk in the evening, and Calico got to go out in the late afternoon. It was pretty busy as everyone was excited.

I am not sure what the plan is at this point, it seems unclear globally. I realize there are a TON of unknowns about the virus, but I am surprised how unclear the messaging is.

• Do they want to manage ICU capacity while keeping an eye on the exponential growth of the virus?
• Do they really think they can reopen without this thing going above R1?
• Are they just hoping the mortality rate is 0.5% once more studies come out and they aim for herd immunity slowly to keep it below R1?
• Do they want young people to get it while old people stay home to get faster herd immunity?

What is the plan? :)

Keeping it below R1 seems highly unrealistic with “lite” social distancing. We’ve been in 6 weeks of total lockdown in Spain and it is still hovering around R0.7 to R1.1. If you re-open the question isn’t will it go above R1, it is by how much IMO. The minute you open schools this thing is going to start spreading.

Our big decision right now is if we want to get a treadmill before the next lockdown.

And, a new bike I got on May 15th for Zwift usage (my bike won’t fit)…

Sunday was the first day in around 6 weeks Calico was allowed outside. Lindsey took him to the park along with his bike, and I took him this morning. Kids are allowed out with one parent for one hour within 1km.

This morning it was like watching him at Christmas :). He was so excited to see grass and trees and just run free. I was too!

I like this video because is a good reference to the long term Republican strategy to destroy the American government and its ability to operate effectively. Watching the USA implode is disheartening on so many levels, and yet so expected at this point.

We’ve got another 2 weeks to go until maybe we can go outside here in Spain. We shall see if it gets extended again :). Data is looking better but this thing has a long tail.

From a Southeast Asia newsletter I follow:

I recently attended a webinar on Southeast Asian responses to the Covid-19 put on by the Singapore-based risk firm Vriens and Partners that ended when the moderator asked representatives of nine countries what offers of help they had received from US officials. Not a single participant could name any response from the US.

In the meantime, China has gone from the target of global outrage over its attempts to cover up the emergence of Covid-19 to mounting intensive efforts to stop it – not without scars – while the United States has completely abdicated almost any role. It is the most recent and most dramatic demonstration of Washington’s loss of global soft-power leadership.

Meanwhile…

China’s attempt to demonstrate soft power in the crisis – a bid to salvage its reputation – is a relatively new phenomenon, and despite its calculated generosity, it is hitting rough spots. Taiwan’s recovery, in the midst of China’s bullying the rebellious island, was hardly flattering. It is not having much success in erasing the fact that the virus originated in China and that it was China’s mishandling of the situation that allowed it to escape, causing tens of thousands of deaths, nor that as much as 40 percent of its test kits are defective.

Good read on China’s actions so far here. The world is changing, I do not want to see the USA abdicate its role.