What I find interesting about the current situation is that all the tools and knowledge we gained from past economic crises are not *super* helpful in our current situation. The modern globalized world has not really faced a global pandemic like this one. And, the way forward for the economy and society is a new path that is going to require experimentation.

It is easy to look at sectors like retail and restaurants that are getting destroyed at a speed we have never seen, but there are a lot of sectors that are slowly bleeding out. Taken as a whole this is as bad a situation as I could possibly imagine. Especially with a total lack of federal leadership in the USA. The EU has handled it better due to the design of their institutions but the division between the north and south is impacting a real response.

It is hard for me not to look at this situation and see parallels to the Great Depression and FDR revamping American society and government. Or, on a darker note the rise of Hitler and other dictators.

What worries me right now?

• In March in the USA, 40% of households making less than $40k had lost a job. 33% of households in the USA make less than $40k.
• Real unemployment right now is probably ~25%.

That is a crazy amount of pain inflicted on a lot of people and communities. And, if we undo the lockdown too soon we make it worse because Covid comes back and we have to start over… causing even more economic damage. And, if we don’t convince people it is safe they won’t go out.

Next, you have all the chain reactions that are slowly going to make things worse and take a long time to shake out the economic impacts. Especially when these are all happening at once instead of one sector is really hurt and the rest kinda ok.

• Restaurants – A lot of restaurants are not going to open, and those that do have to figure out how to survive on xx% less revenue (even if states/cities open up the lack of trust in the gov and fear of covid is going to hurt). A lot will declare bankruptcy, thus making it near impossible for those owners to start a new business. All the industries that supply those restaurants suddenly might have 25% less business, food suppliers, wine/liquor suppliers, linin services, etc. They layoff people, people have less money, repeat, repeat.
• Retail – The same problem.
• Tourism and Travel Related – Just decimated. Airlines will be back but at what % compared to last year? 25%? 50%? And, for how long. Once again, more layoffs. Hotels too. Think of all the ripple effects downstream from those… This is a huge part of each State’s income too.
• Hospitals – They are all going to lose massive amounts of money. All their elective surgeries have disappeared, at what pace they come back is going to be interesting. And, with the USA’s poor response it is likely they will have 20% of their hospital for Covid and as things spike watch everything happen again. Stories of nurses and doctors being laid off or having pay reduced during this crisis are emerging. Covid doesn’t pay the bills.
• Doctors – Small practices don’t have many patients right now. They are going to start going out of business or having significant revenue declines.
• Health Care Premiums – I am curious about what premiums will cost for 2021. The fun thing is we should find out a few weeks before the election I believe :). A ton of elective surgeries are being put off, but what is Covid care costing and will see the normal 3% to 5% increase. Or a 20% increase?
• States – Income is down and they have balanced budget amendments and obligations. Goodbye teachers, cops, and firemen. More layoffs.
• Universities – Loosing foreign and domestic students because they can’t reopen classes. Some could need States to step in to fill the holes.
• Daycare – Absolutely vital for working parents, and already insanely unaffordable. How many are not going to be able to stay in business and reopen? How many are losing kids now both from fear and to cut down on costs? 40% of households making less than $50k a year use a daycare, a big chunk of them just lost jobs, can they still pay that bill or are we about to lose a ton of people from the labor market.
• Oil – Ditto.
• Trucking / Shipping – Duh.
• Landlords – A lot of missed rent payments, a lot of missed mortgages. A huge swath of landlords are just normal people not big businesses and that is going to impact their spending and ripple out.

Things I am thinking about what comes next…

• Are we going to nationalize the health care system in the USA? Or will they just keep giving it money they create and ignoring the nightmare that is our medical system?
• The 2020 election…
• Can the EU pull their shit together and build an actual union, or just kinda limp along until someone else tries to leave.

My hope is that Covid just kinda mutates and goes away like the magical ending of a Michael Crichton novel. Or, maybe we will get a true scientific breakthrough and get a vaccine to market that breaks all previous speed records. Or, maybe we can’t make a vaccine and we are living with this thing for a long time.

Maybe you live in interesting times and all of that.

I just finished a 60-day self-challenge to do a daily warmup every day except Sunday. It usually took about 15 to 20 minutes and it def made me less stiff. I didn’t always do it in the morning, but I could tell a difference when I did (less stiff/sore).

As part of this, I did 72 medicine ball pushups every day (not in a row). I was still trying to work out 3 times a week, so there were days the pushups were harder and I was sore. And, by the end, I was bored with pushups and not looking forward to them. I am going to keep it going, try to get it done first thing in the morning, and switch up the exercises a bit. The goal is just to warm up my body every morning with some stretches / usage.

Spain reopened on Saturday to allow solo sport and some walks for adults. I got a nice 2-hour ride in and it was glorious :). Lindsey took a long walk in the evening, and Calico got to go out in the late afternoon. It was pretty busy as everyone was excited.

I am not sure what the plan is at this point, it seems unclear globally. I realize there are a TON of unknowns about the virus, but I am surprised how unclear the messaging is.

• Do they want to manage ICU capacity while keeping an eye on the exponential growth of the virus?
• Do they really think they can reopen without this thing going above R1?
• Are they just hoping the mortality rate is 0.5% once more studies come out and they aim for herd immunity slowly to keep it below R1?
• Do they want young people to get it while old people stay home to get faster herd immunity?

What is the plan? :)

Keeping it below R1 seems highly unrealistic with “lite” social distancing. We’ve been in 6 weeks of total lockdown in Spain and it is still hovering around R0.7 to R1.1. If you re-open the question isn’t will it go above R1, it is by how much IMO. The minute you open schools this thing is going to start spreading.

Our big decision right now is if we want to get a treadmill before the next lockdown.

And, a new bike I got on May 15th for Zwift usage (my bike won’t fit)…

I am doing some spring cleaning and taking these 3 sites offline. They were a fun project and reminded me how much I hate working with WordPress :). I pulled the content over here for now that I had written.

I launched these to test a larger project I was playing with (to build a community for entrepreneurs). I am glad I did the tests as I learned that entrepreneurs really don’t have time for anything as most of them are in a pretty hectic place. And, I got a good look at the content mills around that entrepreneur space.

Sunday was the first day in around 6 weeks Calico was allowed outside. Lindsey took him to the park along with his bike, and I took him this morning. Kids are allowed out with one parent for one hour within 1km.

This morning it was like watching him at Christmas :). He was so excited to see grass and trees and just run free. I was too!

I am doing a 90-day challenge to lose weight, maintain muscle, and learn more about nutrition. This will run from April 13th through Sunday, July 12th. I am going to work with a nutritionist at Stronger U and read some books.

Why am I doing this?

#1 – I want to learn more about nutrition and the ratios of what I should be eating (carb/fat/protein). I want to understand the science behind increasing and decreasing my meals while ramping up workouts because I sometimes crash. And, I want to see if I can eat less meat while getting enough protein on my AIP diet (ongoing concern).

#2 – I want to lose weight but without losing muscle. I currently weigh 232lb and that is the heaviest I’ve ever been. A big chunk of that is the muscle I’ve gained from rehab/ST over the last couple of years. But, I am sure a good chunk of that is fat too.

I like this video because is a good reference to the long term Republican strategy to destroy the American government and its ability to operate effectively. Watching the USA implode is disheartening on so many levels, and yet so expected at this point.

We’ve got another 2 weeks to go until maybe we can go outside here in Spain. We shall see if it gets extended again :). Data is looking better but this thing has a long tail.

From a Southeast Asia newsletter I follow:

I recently attended a webinar on Southeast Asian responses to the Covid-19 put on by the Singapore-based risk firm Vriens and Partners that ended when the moderator asked representatives of nine countries what offers of help they had received from US officials. Not a single participant could name any response from the US.

In the meantime, China has gone from the target of global outrage over its attempts to cover up the emergence of Covid-19 to mounting intensive efforts to stop it – not without scars – while the United States has completely abdicated almost any role. It is the most recent and most dramatic demonstration of Washington’s loss of global soft-power leadership.

Meanwhile…

China’s attempt to demonstrate soft power in the crisis – a bid to salvage its reputation – is a relatively new phenomenon, and despite its calculated generosity, it is hitting rough spots. Taiwan’s recovery, in the midst of China’s bullying the rebellious island, was hardly flattering. It is not having much success in erasing the fact that the virus originated in China and that it was China’s mishandling of the situation that allowed it to escape, causing tens of thousands of deaths, nor that as much as 40 percent of its test kits are defective.

Good read on China’s actions so far here. The world is changing, I do not want to see the USA abdicate its role.

Good writeup here. What frustrates me the most is how this is the result of 30+ years of Republican’s war on the government. They have systematically destroyed trust in an insition and hobbled its abilities at every turn. Then when it fails they point and say “see”, like Tonya Harding being caught with a crowbar in hand but trying to pretend they are blameless.

I know they really believe that smaller government is better, but that doesn’t mean you need to break every aspect of government. What is the end goal for them? Anarchy? Rich feudal lords who hold all power instead of government?

Thoughts are with medical personal right now admit the shortages of protection gear :(.

For good reason, they decided to extend the lockdown to April 26th. Our hope is they slowly relax it so that people can at least go out to walk, especially with kids.

Going without cardio is HARD, at about 2 to 2.5 weeks I hit a wall of just blah and really wanting to get some type of workout. It is too bad they sold out of treadmill and stationary bikes here so fast :). I workout daily with weights and some other stuff but it isn’t the same. I am impressed with how Calico is holding up so far, he wants to go out but understands we can’t yet.

Calico was doing some kid’s yoga this morning in front of the TV. I sat down to eat and after a while, he said he was going to pause the TV to ask me a question. He paused the TV, walked over, sat down on the chair facing me and asked me, why are we in quarantine? I explained how diseases spread and he listened to me very intently. It was a little surreal. Then we talked about how much we were looking forward to biking outside and running in the park. He asked me if I would throw a frisbee with him when we could go outside. Then, he got off the chair and asked to watch the hungry caterpillar story on Youtube.

We recently got Disney+ so I’ve been watching Rescue Rangers and Scrooge McDuck with Calico. It made me think about the stories I grew up with and how they were always full of adventure, treasure, investigations, secret passageways, and danger. Yet, once kids get to adult age they find out life is much different than these shows.

Why do we do that to them? Is that harmful?

Should we replace these cartoons with cartoons of people adulting and trying to sign up for healthcare and figure out which plan is the best one while realizing insurance companies win no matter what? Or, maybe a cartoon of people working out of a dark cubicle staring at a screen for 8+ hours? My guess is ratings would take a dive…

Or, is this just me, and everyone else watched those shows but didn’t really think they were what life could be like.

I feel slightly weird watching these with Calico and seeing these amazing adventures only to know that barely anyone gets to have a life like this. Beyond the fact, they are obviously impossible fiction stories it seems like we are glamorizing the impossible. Kinda like the Kardashians (which there is good evidence is psychologically damaging).

Is what we are doing any different than what we did around campfires x years ago?

It is hard for me to watch these knowing that a future life for Calico is the USA has no paid vacation, no sick days, and no health care.

I ran into this post a few weeks ago and it was mind-blowing!!!

WHAT!!?????

People have a voice in their head and it speaks in full sentences??!?!?!?

I can’t hear a voice in my head, I more get images and words that flash in my head and jump all over the place. More like a mind map thing that pops up. If I want to say something in my head I have to say it out loud.

I asked my wife and she has a voice, I asked a few friends and they had voices too. That is crazy to me. What a deeply personal thing that we don’t really talk about. I did not know there was an option for something beyond the flashes of words and images and concepts and ideas.

I always thought in movies/tv where they have that voice in the head portrayal that it was just something they used in movies to show what people were thinking.

Do you hear a voice in your head with your inner monologue? Or, do you get the word/concept/mind-map bit?

This makes me wonder about my speed-reading ability as the video in this post is an interview with someone like me and she reads fast too. And, my ability to speak “crazy” which my life likes where I can jump between random things so fast. I don’t think I ever hear the dialogue in my dreams. So many questions :)

I don’t even know!

Watch this video, I resonated with so much of what she described:

This is from a while back, but I wanted to remember it as it cracks me up :).

A few months ago we realized Calico had a bandaid on and we asked him what happened. He said he cut himself, so he went and got a bandaid, and put it on. The little guy had cut himself with a bread knife making food in the kitchen, got a bandaid out of a high drawer in the bathroom, and put it on. Awesome to see :)

At this point, he has done it maybe 3 or 4 times now.

We celebrated Lindsey’s birthday last week under lockdown. We are going to celebrate once we get clear of the lockdown too :). Lindsey made a really cool flour combo from some flour that fell on the floor. It gives Calico some fake sand to play with his trucks in.